Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Double Dip Looking Less Likely

From the Guardian, reporting on a survey by the British Chamber of Commerce (which represents UK businesses), it seems that firms are reporting better conditions this year, which suggests that GDP growth in the first three months of this year (the first quarter of 2010, 2010Q1) will not be negative. In other words, the UK will not suffer from a double dip recession.

Negative growth in 2010Q1 would have led to fears of a double dip recession where, having reported positive growth one quarter (2009Q4) hence escaping recession, the economy is immediately plunged back into recession. Remember a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth so negative growth in 2010Q1 would have to be followed by negative growth in 2010Q2.

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